Import NewsNo Comments
The Silver imports of the country have increased by nearly 60% in October 2017 when seen by a Y-O-Y (year on year) comparison and reached 4,200 tonnes. As per Thomson Reuters GFMS, by the end of the year, about 5,000 tonnes of the metal would be imported.
The demand has improved both from industry and the rural consumers. The industry seems to be restocking after the fall last year. The Thomas Reuters GFMS estimates the import demand will increase by a further 10% next year.
The silver imports fell from a high of 7,955 tonnes in 2015 to 2,794 tonnes in 2016. The industry is seeing a rise in cheque deals as the dealers are moving to banking channels after seeing demonetization happen. The wholesalers have moved to cheques and the unaccounted silver is mainly from customers that sell jewelry or silver bars to the jewelers asking cash in return.
The industry also feels that industrial and consumer demand is high but the investment demand is low as people are more into equity this year. There is also an expectation that the demand will be affected by price in 2018.
In its report, the Thomas Reuters GFMS institute in Washington has told that “The price has averaged $17.16/oz so far this year. For the year as a whole, the GFMS team at Thomson Reuters forecasts the price to average $17.13/oz, marginally lower than the 2016 annual average of $17.14/oz. The market is expected to switch to a small annual physical surplus of 32.2 million oz in 2017, after posting annual physical shortfalls for four years. Total silver supply is forecast to remain broadly flat in 2017, standing at 1,008.4 million oz. Total physical demand is forecast to drop by 5% in 2017, to a total of 976.1 mn oz, led by a sharp fall in retail investment, although an upturn in silverware demand and a modest recovery in jewelry and industrial fabrication should help to offset some of that.”
The silver demand for investment in the international market was at 205 tonnes in 2016 and is expected to fall to 130 tonnes.